MI-statewide · general · 2016-11-08

2016 MI Presidential

Solid D · 100%demopre-registered 2026-04-21 · commit 20afa53
Final forecast · calibrated
trump49.3%
80% interval: [49.0%, 49.4%] · P(win) 0%
clinton50.7%
80% interval: [50.6%, 51.0%] · P(win) 100%
Margin: p50 1.7pp · 80% interval [1.2, 1.9]pp · 100 Monte Carlo trials
Per-engine breakdown
fundamentalscontribution 22% · confidence 36%
trump 48.1%clinton 51.9%
  • · pregame 60% + structural 40% → trump=48.1%, clinton=51.9%
pollingcontribution 39% · confidence 45%
trump 51.1%clinton 48.9%
  • · 5/5 polls used (weight=1.67)
  • · house-effect correction applied (R→trump, D→clinton)
  • · weighted shares: trump=51.1%, clinton=48.9%
syntheticcontribution 21% · confidence 34%
trump 48.1%clinton 51.9%
  • · synthetic electorate (5000 voters) final shares: trump=48.1%, clinton=51.9%
eventcontribution 18% · confidence 50%
trump 47.5%clinton 52.5%
  • · 4 events in last 14 days contributed to the shift
ensemble shrinkage 15% · race-type weights: polling 35% · fundamentals 25% · synthetic 25% · event 15%
How OMEN saw this race over time
HorizonCalibrated sharespollsevents
T−90trump 48.0% · clinton 52.0%00
T−60trump 48.0% · clinton 52.0%00
T−30trump 48.6% · clinton 51.4%12
T−14trump 48.5% · clinton 51.5%23
T−7trump 50.0% · clinton 50.0%36
T−0trump 49.3% · clinton 50.7%58
Population

Voters sampled from US Census ACS PUMS microdata (mi-statewide). 5,000 simulated voters, seed omen_pol_v0.

partisan base
27.3%
swing
18.0%
low info
17.6%
demographic bloc
19.4%
cross pressured
17.7%
Resolution
winner wrong
trump 47.5%clinton 47.3%turnout 64%
Share err
2.60pp
Margin err
1.23pp
Brier (winner)
0.257