TX-statewide · general · 2018-11-06

2018 Texas Senate

Solid R · 100%demopre-registered 2026-04-21 · commit 20afa53
Final forecast · calibrated
cruz52.2%
80% interval: [52.1%, 53.0%] · P(win) 100%
orourke47.8%
80% interval: [47.0%, 47.9%] · P(win) 0%
Margin: p50 4.8pp · 80% interval [4.2, 5.9]pp · 100 Monte Carlo trials
Per-engine breakdown
fundamentalscontribution 31% · confidence 50%
cruz 56.8%orourke 43.2%
  • · pregame 60% + structural 40% → cruz=53.8%, orourke=46.2%
  • · incumbent cruz: +3.0pp
pollingcontribution 39% · confidence 45%
cruz 52.8%orourke 47.2%
  • · 4/5 polls used (weight=1.49)
  • · house-effect correction applied (R→cruz, D→orourke)
  • · weighted shares: cruz=52.8%, orourke=47.2%
syntheticcontribution 23% · confidence 37%
cruz 46.6%orourke 53.4%
  • · synthetic electorate (5000 voters) final shares: cruz=46.6%, orourke=53.4%
eventcontribution 7% · confidence 20%
cruz 53.2%orourke 46.8%
  • · 1 events in last 14 days contributed to the shift
ensemble shrinkage 15% · race-type weights: polling 35% · fundamentals 25% · synthetic 25% · event 15%
How OMEN saw this race over time
HorizonCalibrated sharespollsevents
T−90cruz 52.4% · orourke 47.6%00
T−60cruz 52.3% · orourke 47.7%11
T−30cruz 53.1% · orourke 46.9%23
T−14cruz 52.9% · orourke 47.1%35
T−7cruz 52.7% · orourke 47.3%46
T−0cruz 52.2% · orourke 47.8%57
Population

Voters sampled from US Census ACS PUMS microdata (tx-statewide). 5,000 simulated voters, seed omen_pol_v0.

partisan base
24.2%
swing
17.6%
low info
17.1%
demographic bloc
22.5%
cross pressured
18.6%
Resolution
winner correct
cruz 50.9%orourke 48.3%turnout 53%
Share err
0.95pp
Margin err
1.89pp
Brier (winner)
0.228