VA-statewide · general · 2021-11-02

2021 Virginia Governor

Lean R · 55%demopre-registered 2026-04-21 · commit 20afa53

Final forecast · calibrated

youngkin50.0%

80% interval: [49.4%, 50.6%] · P(win) 55%

mcauliffe50.0%

80% interval: [49.4%, 50.6%] · P(win) 45%

Margin: p50 0.6pp · 80% interval [0.2, 1.5]pp · 100 Monte Carlo trials

Per-engine breakdown

fundamentalscontribution 22% · confidence 38%

youngkin 47.4%mcauliffe 52.6%

· pregame 60% + structural 40% → youngkin=47.4%, mcauliffe=52.6%

pollingcontribution 47% · confidence 59%

youngkin 51.6%mcauliffe 48.4%

· 6/6 polls used (weight=3.38)
· house-effect correction applied (R→youngkin, D→mcauliffe)
· weighted shares: youngkin=51.6%, mcauliffe=48.4%

syntheticcontribution 17% · confidence 30%

youngkin 49.9%mcauliffe 50.1%

· synthetic electorate (5000 voters) final shares: youngkin=49.9%, mcauliffe=50.1%

eventcontribution 14% · confidence 40%

youngkin 48.6%mcauliffe 51.4%

· 3 events in last 14 days contributed to the shift

ensemble shrinkage 15% · race-type weights: polling 35% · fundamentals 25% · synthetic 25% · event 15%

How OMEN saw this race over time

HorizonCalibrated sharespollsevents

T−90youngkin 47.7% · mcauliffe 52.3%00

T−60youngkin 47.9% · mcauliffe 52.1%01

T−30youngkin 48.5% · mcauliffe 51.5%02

T−14youngkin 48.7% · mcauliffe 51.3%04

T−7youngkin 49.8% · mcauliffe 50.2%36

T−0youngkin 50.0% · mcauliffe 50.0%68

Population

Voters sampled from US Census ACS PUMS microdata (va-statewide). 5,000 simulated voters, seed omen_pol_v0.

partisan base

29.1%

swing

16.3%

low info

16.5%

demographic bloc

20.3%

cross pressured

17.7%

Resolution

winner wrong

youngkin 50.6%mcauliffe 48.6%turnout 55%

Share err

1.02pp

Margin err

1.96pp

Brier (winner)

0.250