AZ-statewide · general · 2022-11-08

2022 Arizona Senate

Solid D · 100%demopre-registered 2026-04-21 · commit 20afa53
Final forecast · calibrated
kelly53.4%
80% interval: [53.3%, 53.7%] · P(win) 100%
masters46.6%
80% interval: [46.3%, 46.7%] · P(win) 0%
Margin: p50 7.0pp · 80% interval [6.5, 7.4]pp · 100 Monte Carlo trials
Per-engine breakdown
fundamentalscontribution 23% · confidence 43%
kelly 54.2%masters 45.8%
  • · pregame 60% + structural 40% → kelly=51.2%, masters=48.8%
  • · incumbent kelly: +3.0pp
pollingcontribution 42% · confidence 54%
kelly 52.5%masters 47.5%
  • · 6/6 polls used (weight=2.66)
  • · house-effect correction applied (R→masters, D→kelly)
  • · weighted shares: kelly=52.5%, masters=47.5%
syntheticcontribution 25% · confidence 45%
kelly 56.7%masters 43.3%
  • · synthetic electorate (5000 voters) final shares: kelly=56.7%, masters=43.3%
eventcontribution 10% · confidence 30%
kelly 53.3%masters 46.7%
  • · 2 events in last 14 days contributed to the shift
ensemble shrinkage 15% · race-type weights: polling 35% · fundamentals 25% · synthetic 25% · event 15%
How OMEN saw this race over time
HorizonCalibrated sharespollsevents
T−90kelly 53.5% · masters 46.5%01
T−60kelly 53.7% · masters 46.3%01
T−30kelly 53.3% · masters 46.7%13
T−14kelly 53.5% · masters 46.5%35
T−7kelly 53.4% · masters 46.6%46
T−0kelly 53.4% · masters 46.6%67
Population

Voters sampled from US Census ACS PUMS microdata (az-statewide). 5,000 simulated voters, seed omen_pol_v0.

partisan base
27.2%
swing
17.5%
low info
18.1%
demographic bloc
18.2%
cross pressured
18.9%
Resolution
winner correct
kelly 51.4%masters 46.5%turnout 64%
Share err
1.05pp
Margin err
1.95pp
Brier (winner)
0.217