PA-statewide · general · 2022-11-08

2022 Pennsylvania Senate General

Solid D · 100%demopre-registered 2026-04-21 · commit 20afa53
Final forecast · calibrated
fetterman51.3%
80% interval: [51.2%, 51.6%] · P(win) 100%
oz48.7%
80% interval: [48.4%, 48.8%] · P(win) 0%
Margin: p50 2.7pp · 80% interval [2.4, 3.1]pp · 100 Monte Carlo trials
Per-engine breakdown
fundamentalscontribution 22% · confidence 35%
fetterman 51.7%oz 48.3%
  • · pregame 60% + structural 40% → fetterman=51.7%, oz=48.3%
pollingcontribution 46% · confidence 52%
fetterman 51.3%oz 48.7%
  • · 6/6 polls used (weight=2.60)
  • · house-effect correction applied (R→oz, D→fetterman)
  • · weighted shares: fetterman=51.3%, oz=48.7%
syntheticcontribution 21% · confidence 33%
fetterman 51.3%oz 48.7%
  • · synthetic electorate (5000 voters) final shares: fetterman=51.3%, oz=48.7%
eventcontribution 11% · confidence 30%
fetterman 52.6%oz 47.4%
  • · 2 events in last 14 days contributed to the shift
ensemble shrinkage 15% · race-type weights: polling 35% · fundamentals 25% · synthetic 25% · event 15%
How OMEN saw this race over time
HorizonCalibrated sharespollsevents
T−90fetterman 51.1% · oz 48.9%02
T−60fetterman 51.6% · oz 48.4%04
T−30fetterman 51.7% · oz 48.3%05
T−14fetterman 51.1% · oz 48.9%28
T−7fetterman 51.1% · oz 48.9%49
T−0fetterman 51.3% · oz 48.7%610
Population

Voters sampled from US Census ACS PUMS microdata (pa-statewide). 5,000 simulated voters, seed omen_pol_v0.

partisan base
29.0%
swing
17.6%
low info
16.7%
demographic bloc
19.5%
cross pressured
17.3%
Resolution
winner correct
fetterman 51.2%oz 46.5%turnout 55%
Share err
1.15pp
Margin err
2.12pp
Brier (winner)
0.237