GA-statewide · runoff · 2022-12-06

2022 Georgia Senate Runoff

Solid D · 100%demopre-registered 2026-04-21 · commit 20afa53
Final forecast · calibrated
warnock53.3%
80% interval: [53.3%, 53.9%] · P(win) 100%
walker46.7%
80% interval: [46.1%, 46.7%] · P(win) 0%
Margin: p50 7.1pp · 80% interval [6.6, 7.7]pp · 100 Monte Carlo trials
Per-engine breakdown
fundamentalscontribution 26% · confidence 39%
warnock 53.1%walker 46.9%
  • · pregame 60% + structural 40% → warnock=50.1%, walker=49.9%
  • · incumbent warnock: +3.0pp
  • · runoff: partisan-lean not applied (within-party race)
pollingcontribution 35% · confidence 53%
warnock 52.8%walker 47.2%
  • · 5/5 polls used (weight=2.41)
  • · house-effect correction applied (R→walker, D→warnock)
  • · weighted shares: warnock=52.8%, walker=47.2%
syntheticcontribution 25% · confidence 45%
warnock 56.9%walker 43.1%
  • · synthetic electorate (5000 voters) final shares: warnock=56.9%, walker=43.1%
eventcontribution 13% · confidence 40%
warnock 52.7%walker 47.3%
  • · 3 events in last 14 days contributed to the shift
ensemble shrinkage 15% · race-type weights: polling 30% · fundamentals 30% · synthetic 25% · event 15%
How OMEN saw this race over time
HorizonCalibrated sharespollsevents
T−90warnock 53.5% · walker 46.5%00
T−60warnock 53.5% · walker 46.5%00
T−30warnock 53.5% · walker 46.5%00
T−14warnock 53.4% · walker 46.6%13
T−7warnock 53.5% · walker 46.5%24
T−0warnock 53.3% · walker 46.7%57
Population

Voters sampled from US Census ACS PUMS microdata (ga-statewide). 5,000 simulated voters, seed omen_pol_v0.

partisan base
46.0%
swing
9.1%
low info
11.1%
demographic bloc
19.7%
cross pressured
14.1%
Resolution
winner correct
warnock 51.4%walker 48.6%turnout 56%
Share err
1.91pp
Margin err
3.83pp
Brier (winner)
0.218