NY-16 · primary · 2024-06-25

2024 NY-16 Democratic Primary

Solid D · 100%demopre-registered 2026-04-21 · commit 20afa53

Final forecast · calibrated

latimer53.2%

80% interval: [52.6%, 53.5%] · P(win) 100%

bowman46.8%

80% interval: [46.5%, 47.4%] · P(win) 0%

Margin: p50 6.1pp · 80% interval [5.2, 7.0]pp · 100 Monte Carlo trials

Per-engine breakdown

fundamentalscontribution 23% · confidence 54%

latimer 42.0%bowman 58.0%

· pregame prior: latimer=45.0%, bowman=55.0%
· incumbent bowman: +3.0pp
· primary: partisan-lean not applied (within-party race)

pollingcontribution 28% · confidence 52%

latimer 59.7%bowman 40.3%

· 4/4 polls used (weight=1.28)
· weighted shares: latimer=59.7%, bowman=40.3%

syntheticcontribution 37% · confidence 50%

latimer 58.9%bowman 41.1%

· synthetic electorate (5000 voters) final shares: latimer=58.9%, bowman=41.1%

eventcontribution 13% · confidence 30%

latimer 47.1%bowman 52.9%

· 2 events in last 14 days contributed to the shift

ensemble shrinkage 15% · race-type weights: polling 25% · fundamentals 20% · synthetic 35% · event 20%

How OMEN saw this race over time

HorizonCalibrated sharespollsevents

T−90latimer 49.9% · bowman 50.1%00

T−60latimer 49.5% · bowman 50.5%01

T−30latimer 51.5% · bowman 48.5%13

T−14latimer 52.8% · bowman 47.2%24

T−7latimer 52.8% · bowman 47.2%35

T−0latimer 53.2% · bowman 46.8%47

Population

Voters sampled from US Census ACS PUMS microdata (ny16). 5,000 simulated voters, seed omen_pol_v0.

partisan base

47.1%

swing

8.1%

low info

10.4%

demographic bloc

18.1%

cross pressured

16.3%

Resolution

winner correct

latimer 58.7%bowman 41.3%turnout 22%

Share err

5.53pp

Margin err

11.07pp

Brier (winner)

0.219