US-national · general · 2024-11-05

2024 US Presidential (Popular Vote)

Lean R · 63%demopre-registered 2026-04-21 · commit 20afa53

Final forecast · calibrated

harris49.8%

80% interval: [49.7%, 50.2%] · P(win) 37%

trump50.2%

80% interval: [49.8%, 50.3%] · P(win) 63%

Margin: p50 0.2pp · 80% interval [0.0, 0.6]pp · 100 Monte Carlo trials

Per-engine breakdown

fundamentalscontribution 19% · confidence 33%

harris 51.0%trump 49.0%

· pregame prior: harris=51.0%, trump=49.0%

pollingcontribution 52% · confidence 65%

harris 48.7%trump 51.3%

· 7/9 polls used (weight=4.17)
· house-effect correction applied (R→trump, D→harris)
· weighted shares: harris=48.7%, trump=51.3%

syntheticcontribution 18% · confidence 31%

harris 50.6%trump 49.4%

· synthetic electorate (5000 voters) final shares: harris=50.6%, trump=49.4%

eventcontribution 10% · confidence 30%

harris 51.3%trump 48.7%

· 2 events in last 14 days contributed to the shift

ensemble shrinkage 15% · race-type weights: polling 35% · fundamentals 25% · synthetic 25% · event 15%

How OMEN saw this race over time

HorizonCalibrated sharespollsevents

T−90harris 50.5% · trump 49.5%03

T−60harris 49.1% · trump 50.9%24

T−30harris 49.8% · trump 50.2%57

T−14harris 49.8% · trump 50.2%58

T−7harris 49.8% · trump 50.2%69

T−0harris 49.8% · trump 50.2%911

Population

Voters sampled from hand-authored segment mix. 5,000 simulated voters, seed omen_pol_v0.

partisan base

35.0%

swing

15.0%

low info

25.0%

demographic bloc

15.0%

cross pressured

10.0%

Resolution

winner correct

harris 48.3%trump 49.8%turnout 64%

Share err

0.95pp

Margin err

1.10pp

Brier (winner)

0.248